Vision Expo East 2025: Tariffs predicted to impact frames, lens costs

Alysse Henkel, vice president of Research and inSights at The Vision Council, discussed the impact of increased tariffs on the eyewear industry, particularly the 10% increase on China tariffs, which could double the cost to $333 million for the same amount of imports. This is expected to lead to price increases for consumers or wholesalers. The tariffs have significantly affected the frames industry, while potential tariffs on lenses from Mexico could impact the lens side. Manufacturers are exploring ways to mitigate costs, such as negotiating with suppliers or considering currency devaluation. The overall consensus is that price increases are inevitable at both the wholesale and consumer levels.

Video Transcript:

Editor's note: The below transcript has been lightly edited for clarity.

Alysse Henkel:

So we are anticipating some price increases for consumers to sort of pass on some of the tariffs that we're seeing. So some of the data that we've been crunching are looking at the China tariffs that have increased this year by an additional 10%. They started in the last Trump administration, where he added tariffs initially, and then they were sustained through the last administration, and now they're essentially doubled with an additional 10% this year. And so that's what we're seeing. If we look at the same amount of imports coming through China this year as last year, last year the industry overall paid $160 million in tariffs for eye wear that were imported from China, specifically. Crunching the numbers, at the same amount was imported this year, then we expect those payments to double to $333 million. So that can be pretty diffusely spread out across. There are a lot of products imported, so sometimes it just would be a few dollars increase in terms of the import fee. But overall, if the industry is expecting to pay about double in terms of the imports, that is likely going to be passed on in terms of wholesale pricing or consumer pricing. You know, obviously I wish I had a crystal ball to say exactly what those increases would look like. But, you know, right now, in a per unit basis, we're seeing a few dollars increase depending on the product. And so that might, as it goes down the supply chain, increase potentially. So I think there are some warning signs in place right now about the tariff increase. And that's in particular on China, it's really affected on the frames side of the industry, whereas if we would see the tariffs implemented that's been talked about in Canada and Mexico, which would be a big jump essentially from 0 to 25%, that would have a big impact on the lens side of the business in particular. So Canada is not really too much of a player, but actually last year, 26% of lenses imported into the US were from Mexico, followed by China at 19%. So if the tariffs from Mexico are implemented, then we also anticipate that will be a big shake up to that lens industry pricing as well.

I think it'll probably be spread sort of throughout the supply chain, in terms of who's bearing the burden of those costs. I was in a conversation yesterday with a bunch of the frames manufacturers, and they were talking about also, potentially, working with their suppliers in China to try to have them sort of absorb some of those costs as well, potentially. So I think the firms who are importing, and in China, like the firms right now that are exporting, everyone's trying to mitigate some of these costs. There's also potential talk about devaluing the Chinese currency to make those costs a little bit easier to bear on the Chinese manufacturing side as well too. But that's all sort of yet to be seen. So I think it will likely be sort of spread out among all of those. But I think it would be naive to expect there to be no price increase on the wholesale or the consumer side of things.